Discontent bubbles not far from the surface as the Liberal Democrats gather for their conference this weekend. Two years on from their best ever general election result, conversations with those on the party’s frontbench, its MPs, and backroom staff reveal a frustration at what many see as a failure to capitalise on that success. Polling by YouGov in the build up to the conference highlighted the Lib Dems “have seen no real growth in support since the last general election” and if anything have slipped back. “We lack the ability to say something new or interesting,” said one senior Lib Dem MP.
“There is no energy, no excitement.” A frontbencher said: “With the possible exception of our position on Trump, you could characterise most of our press lines as ‘a Lib Dem spokesperson said, steady on now, gently does it’.” Others describe the party’s approach as “boring” and are spooked by the rise of the Green Party under Zack Polanski. The party’s leadership are aware of the anger. They insist this conference will be a “gear shift”. Daisy Cooper, the deputy leader, told me it would be “a gloves-off kind of conference”.
“You’ll see a bit of fighting talk,” she said. Some of the caution until now has been deliberate. The party’s leadership met over the last few months and discussed whether to copy Polanski’s punchy, social media-focused style but decided it wouldn’t appeal to the well-heeled areas of southern England that form the Lib Dem heartlands. Those involved in that decision point to Polanski’s recent struggles and feel vindicated.
But at all levels of the party there is an acknowledgement they lag behind other parties on grabbing attention on social media, highlighted by Andy Burnham’s “social first” approach. The party has only recently rolled out training for its MPs on making social videos, something senior figures despair at. “When we have a success we’re very good at getting a leaflet sent out to supporters straight away,” one senior MP said. “But we don’t do that for socials.” Digital and social media will be a focus of at least 17 fringe events at conference, as the party tries to improve its online communications.
But others worry that social media is just the medium and the problem is with the message. One MP raised the majority of voters (52% according to YouGov,) who view the party as “weak” in recent polling; and the tendency to say it’s unclear what the party stands for (43% believing the party was weak, to 18% thinking it was strong). “We need to become bolder and more radical,” a senior MP added. “We need to be angry on behalf of our constituents.” Another Lib Dem MP said: “We are stuck fighting the guerilla politics of local campaigning.
There is no broader articulation of what a vision for Liberal Britain is.” Even those most loyal to Davey admit the party was struggling to offer a clear and coherent message. The Lib Dems’ success at the last general election was, the party’s own strategists believe, because voters wanted to remove the Conservatives and the Lib Dems benefitted from that anti-Tory sentiment. “We haven’t yet answered why people should vote for us rather than against the Tories,” admitted one senior advisor. In public, Lib Dem MPs are often coy about the possibility of a coalition government with Labour after the election.
In private, there are no such reservations. In an election many think could produce a hung parliament with no party in overall majority, the Lib Dem ambition is to be kingmakers to block a Reform government. “If you’re a serious political party you exist to be in government,” the same senior adviser said. Lib Dem strategists are confident they can retain most of the 72 seats they won in 2024.
Their sights now are on the 27 others where they came second, most of which were won by the Conservatives. The party’s leadership characterise the last two years since the general election as “stage one” when a largely new intake of MPs bedded into their constituencies. “Stage two is winning the air war and describing exactly what Liberal Britain looks like. You’ll see a lot of that at conference,” said Cooper.
Of her boss, party leader Sir Ed, she said: “He’s not just nice guy Eddie. I think you’re going to see him being a bit more gritty because he’s a real fighter.” She added Davey saw the battle with Reform UK as the “fight of our lives”. Critics within the party point out that promise of fighting talk to take on Reform UK accompanied the last Lib Dem conference. Yet little has changed in the party’s national standings.
Join EU migration pact to tackle small boats, says Ed Davey Change voting system before next election, Davey urges Burnham Lib Dems offer alternative to extremes of Reform and Greens, Davey says There is a sizeable group of Lib Dem MPs, and members of its frontbench, who openly question whether their problem is not with the message, nor the strategy, but with Davey, the leader. “I think he’s holding us back,” said one of the party’s spokespeople who is planning a tilt at the leadership if a race is triggered. “The atmosphere is ripe for a leadership challenge,” another MP, talking of the frustrations in the party, said. “But we don’t have a Wes Streeting,” they added, referring to Labour’s defence secretary whose challenge to Sir Keir Starmer undermined his leadership.
“There is a lack of an ambitious, young alternative putting themselves out there to show a different way.” Davey’s supporters in the party point to his experience of government and insist there is no one better to replace him. They also dismiss national polling as the way to measure the Lib Dem’s standing. “I’d like to be on more than 10% [in national opinion polls],” one frontbencher loyal to Davey said. “But I’d prefer to be on 10% and looking at winning 80 seats than on 15% and winning four.” “You look at our ground game and you look at our local election results,” another said, pointing to gains the party made at this year’s May elections.
“That shows you that our strategy is definitely working.” But frustration bubbles away. And plenty in the party are looking at alternatives to Davey, like the party’s President Josh Babarinde or Cooper, and question why they aren’t setting out alternative visions. Both will give speeches at the conference, as will the home affairs spokesperson Max Wilkinson. So what of Cooper, who many consider the frontrunner to succeed Davey?
“Ed is absolutely the right leader,” she tells me. “I really like being deputy leader to Ed. We work together as a team. I think we complement each other.” Would she want to be leader?
“There is no vacancy,” she says. Ever? “There is no vacancy at the moment,” she replies.
