The facts portend feeling optimistic about Jaxson Dart’s Week 1 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys. Elsa/Getty ImagesLiz LozaSep 9, 2026, 10:58 AM ETCloseLiz Loza is a writer for fantasy football and betting at ESPN and host of the “Facts vs. Feelings” podcast. Liz also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and contributes to the “Fantasy Focus Football” podcast.Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsDo you remember your first live concert? Your first kiss?
Your first fantasy football team?Chances are subsequent events have become increasingly enlivening, enjoyable and engaging. Still, there’s something unique about a person’s inaugural anything. Even if a “first” isn’t the “best,” it forever holds a special place in our memories. Quite literally.
Because the human brain is hardwired to recognize novelty, firsts are cognitively processed alongside surges of dopamine, which root deeply into our consciousness.That’s why I know every word to “Forever in Blue Jeans.” It explains the warm-cheeked nostalgia I feel whenever “spin the bottle” is referenced. And how come I’ll be glued to No. 11’s jersey retirement in Week 7.Each of those occurrences proved to be major milestones. Some that I’ve chased, others that I’ve grown from, and all of which I appreciate. They’re also instances that I refuse to stop having.
There exists no limit to the number of “firsts” we’re able to acquire. Perhaps the happenings become more niche with time, but that doesn’t mean they evaporate.For instance, I recently had the pleasure of hosting the Disney Storyliving community at Cotino’s debut fantasy football draft party. For those who haven’t Googled what this is yet — because I initially had to — it’s a residential community in the California desert that includes a man-made turquoise lagoon. I had definitely never paddleboarded at a beach in the desert before.
The property holds a number of group activities and for the first time, it offered its residents a fantasy football league.Some participants brought veteran experience, coming with their own curated notes and cheat sheets. Others were there to smash the nacho bar and roster a QB in the first round. Regardless, everyone enjoyed themselves. Within a few picks, strangers realized they were neighbors, group chats had been created, and regular trash talk was promised.
The virtual game had, once again, and for the first time for these participants, helped to build a social network and facilitate connection.As we set our lineups in anticipation of Week 1 — and a first Wednesday night start to the season — let’s remember this is our premier matchup in a series of 17 (or 18, for you sickos). We’re allowed to get excited. To catalog the following rushes, receptions and registered points with the same sensorial glee used to construct our current rosters and remember the bangers from seasons past. It might not be the most successful first voyage, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be memorable.Here are some facts that support how I feel about these players in Week 1.
Jaxson Dart, QB, New York GiantsNothing screams “football is back” like an NFC East rivalry game. There’s also no better time to employ a dual-threat QB with a proclivity toward finding the blue tent than in Week 1. Dart’s legs are fresh and his matchup is prime. The Boys’ five most generous outings versus opposing quarterbacks — each of which went over 29 fantasy — came against four plus athletes … and Russell Wilson.
In an offense led by a healthy Malik Nabers (who earned a 32.5% target share), Wilson threw for 450 yards, three TDs, and added 23 rushing yards.Even supposing Nabers is limited, Dart represents a definitive upgrade over Wilson. His dynamism figures to shine against a Dallas defense that surrendered the third-most rushing yards to QBs in 2025. As a rookie, Dart led all quarterbacks by averaging an astounding 34.8 rushing yards per game, while also ranking as the QB2 in explosive runs of 12-plus yards (11) in Weeks 4 through 18. Furthermore, Dart surpassed 19 fantasy points in all four of his divisional starts last year, giving him top-five positional appeal to start the 2026 season.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago BearsFantasy managers can breathe a sigh of relief after Swift exited last Thursday’s practice due to abdominal cramping. He returned to the field fully Monday and is locked in for a favorable Week 1 matchup. Carolina struggled mightily against the run last season, allowing 4.4 yards per carry, surrendering 20 rushing touchdowns and ranking 31st in pressure rate. Although the Panthers made offseason investments to bolster the front seven, this newly rebuilt defensive unit will likely still be finding its footing in the season opener, clearing the way for Swift to deliver a commanding performance.Additionally, Swift is poised to immediately handle a heavy workload.
Although fellow running back Kyle Monangai logged his first practice on Monday since sustaining a hyperextended knee three weeks ago, the sophomore back is unlikely to handle his usual complement of touches by Sunday. This clear path to volume sets Swift up to lead the backfield, mirroring the start of the 2025 season, wherein he averaged 14 carries and three receptions over the first five weeks prior to Monangai earning double-digit totes. Notably, Swift produced 17.8 fantasy points per game in contests in which he exceeded 15 touches (excluding matchups against Minnesota’s top-ranked pressure defense). Following a highly efficient season, highlighted by a career-high 42.6% of his carries gaining five or more yards, Swift profiles as a rock-solid RB2 for the opening week.
Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cleveland BrownsDespite my stumping for Judkins all summer, his brutal opening schedule cannot be ignored. Week 1 presents a battle against a Jaguars defense that allowed the second-fewest yards per carry (3.9) and fantasy points per game (13.9) to running backs last season. Remarkably, not a single RB reached 75 rushing yards against Jacksonville, an impressive feat considering Duval faced high-end talent including Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor (twice), Kyren Williams and Ashton Jeanty.The Browns open the season as 8.5-points road dogs at Jacksonville. Not only does that line highlight a savage matchup, it also implies a suboptimal game script.
Favorites registered a 45.3% rush rate last season, in contrast to underdogs, who averaged a rush rate of 42.3%. Considering Judkins offers minimal utility in the passing game — averaging a meager 1.9 receptions per game last season — and hasn’t broken a 20-yard run since Week 7 of last year, his ceiling is severely limited. Expect Judkins to produce as a shaky RB3 to open the year. Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Tampa Bay BuccaneersGainwell kicks off his Tampa Bay tenure with a favorable matchup against a former divisional foe.
Last season, the Bengals struggled significantly against running backs, permitting 22 of them to reach at least 10 fantasy points and 15 to eclipse 15 fantasy points. Cincinnati’s defense was particularly vulnerable through the air, surrendering nearly five catches per contest (ninth most) to RBs in 2025. Gainwell exploited the mismatch as a Steeler, converting seven of eight looks for 81 receiving yards and two aerial scores in Week 11.He’s well-situated for another busy day in a clash that boasts the week’s highest projected point total (51.5). With Emeka Egbuka dealing with turf toe, Tampa Bay could lean on Gainwell to pick up the slack.
He’s also likely to produce when targeted. Baker Mayfield’s tendency to throw short — he ranked 10th in passes at or behind the line of scrimmage last year — is a bull’s-eye for Gainwell’s skill set. Fold in last year’s Bucky Irving rushing struggles (3.4 YPC), and Gainwell is firmly on the flex radar to start 2026.
