On Sunday, US President Donald Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed a ceasefire on strikes on energy infrastructure “effective immediately”. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky suggested it was “news for me”, while Russia has not commented publicly. So who is saying what? Donald Trump says an energy ceasefire has been agreed.
Kyiv asks: Has it? It is willing to sign up – if Russia does. Russia is saying: Very little. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov was asked whether such a ceasefire had been agreed during his daily conference call with journalists.
“Contacts are continuing,” Peskov replied. “As soon as we have anything to say about this, we will definitely inform you.” Peskov may not have had much to say on the matter, but the pro-Kremlin media has. It has dubbed President Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire “a gift” for Moscow. “Of course we benefit,” pro-government news outlet Moskovsky Komsomolets concluded.
“It means that all Russia has to do is not destroy Ukraine’s last remaining oil refinery. “That has already been attacked several times. It’s barely functioning anyway. “But Kyiv won’t be allowed to hit the multitude of refineries we have.
“In effect it’s a one-way deal that benefits us. That’s why no one here has officially rejected it.” In other words, Moscow believes Trump’s announcement ties Ukraine’s hands, not Russia’s. In recent months, long-range Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities have caused extensive damage, as well as fuel shortages across the country. Should such attacks continue, expect the Russians to claim that Kyiv is harming US economic interests – as well as the Republican Party’s chances in the midterm elections in November.
Russian officials will argue that the strikes undermine the recent Trump-Putin fuel deal for the US to import Russian diesel. Trump has claimed the agreement will benefit US consumers, although there is widespread scepticism that the volumes involved will do much to lower fuel prices. Still, the Kremlin will be only too happy if Ukrainian drone strikes on oil facilities spark fury in the White House and curtail US support for Kyiv. Moscow would welcome Washington cutting off intelligence sharing to Ukraine and weapons sales to Europe that are destined for Kyiv.
It has already delighted to hear Trump declaring: “I think it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for a 60-day Russian ceasefire to allow for presidential elections in Ukraine. “The Kremlin, the president, has said many times before, we don’t want a ceasefire, we want a lasting peace, and we’re willing to do whatever’s possible for that,” Peskov said. “Whatever’s possible” does not include a 60-day ceasefire, or a 30-day ceasefire, or anything close to that. On Monday, the Kremlin proposed a one-day cessation of hostilities for Ukraine to hold elections.
That will not be seen in Ukraine, or in the West, as a serious offer. It comes as no surprise though. Putin has shown little desire to halt the fighting. Recent statements, speeches and signals from Russia’s leader suggest that, with winter approaching, the Kremlin is counting on a continued campaign of Russian strikes to significantly increase the pressure on Ukraine.
On Monday, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Ukraine does not deserve the “respite” a ceasefire would bring. The Kremlin has claimed to seek “lasting peace” but right now it is continuing the fighting. On Monday, Zelensky claimed that Russia had hit several energy targets across Ukraine during the night and into the morning. “This window of opportunity should be used to knock Ukraine back to the Stone Age and force it to accept peace on Russia’s terms,” the pro-government Moskovsky Komsomolets has written.
The Kremlin’s objective hasn’t changed: Ukraine’s capitulation. Moscow seems to believe that the diesel deal with Trump and the US president’s growing impatience with Zelensky will help Russia secure its goal. Six Ukrainian energy sites hit by Russia since Trump announced ceasefire, Zelensky says Zelensky backs Trump’s ‘energy ceasefire’ but says Russia continues to hit power plants Analysis: Trump’s shock Russia deal highlights mounting pressure to curb fuel prices
