playNeil PaineSep 23, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseNeil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsThe seasons are changing and the days are getting shorter. That means hockey season is nearly upon us — and we should be in for a fascinating one in 2026-27.Going into last season, we wrote that something had to give: Either we would see more of the same after two consecutive Florida Panthers-Edmonton Oilers Stanley Cup Finals, or someone new was finally going to get a chance to break through. Little did we know just how far things would swing away from the familiar.Not only did the two-time defending Cup winner (and three-time defending East champ) Panthers not win again, but they didn’t even make the playoffs amid an injury-wrecked campaign.
Meanwhile, the Oilers barely made it any further, losing in the first round to the upstart Anaheim Ducks.But if we thought the Carolina Hurricanes’ long-awaited title after seven previously fruitless playoff trips signals the start of a new NHL era, well, not so fast. The Panthers and Oilers are still here, along with the 2023 champion Vegas Golden Knights — whom Carolina beat for the Cup — plus the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning among recent champs.If anything, the league now enters another new season with an unusual mix of teams trying to prove last year was no fluke, familiar heavyweights trying to climb back to the top, and young squads trying to crash the party ahead of schedule.To help handicap the race before opening night on Tuesday, let’s look at my aggregated market-forecast tracker, which normalizes and averages together the odds from multiple different sportsbooks and prediction markets to produce a consensus estimate of each team’s chances at the playoffs and the Stanley Cup. Using those numbers, we can sort all 32 teams into six tiers — from the leading Cup favorites to the longest of long shots.How to watch the 2026-27 NHL season on ESPN networks — including 100 exclusive games and the out-of-market package (over 1,050 games).Tier 1: The cream of the cropFlorida Panthers10.5% Cup | 81.6% playoffsLast season’s injury-riddled disaster apparently did little to shake the market’s faith in the Panthers’ dynasty. Instead, Florida is right back where it spent most of the previous few years, atop the list of Stanley Cup favorites, as if nothing happened.And there are reasons to think the Panthers can do a classic “gap year” turnaround — ranging from the offseason acquisition of Brady Tkachuk (uniting with brother Matthew) to the return of Aleksander Barkov from the knee injury that cost him all of 2025-26, among many, many injured Cats from a year ago.But as much talent as they have, the Panthers need to prove they can stay healthy and snap back to their previous form, which can’t be completely assumed.
There’s a reason that teams such as the NBA’s 2022 Warriors are so rare — usually when the window is shut, it stays that way.The biggest uncertainty of all might be in net, where Jacob Markstrom and Akira Schmid replace Sergei Bobrovsky — particularly after Florida already ranked 28th in goalie GAR with Bobrovsky last year.Big question: Was 2025-26 merely a mulligan?Colorado Avalanche9.8% Cup | 89.9% playoffsThe Avs belong here until proven otherwise, after dominating the regular season essentially wire-to-wire. (Never mind how things ended in the playoffs, when they set new NHL records for being swept by a Vegas team with 16 fewer wins and a goal differential 84 goals worse during the season.)As long as this core of Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Martin Necas & Co. are together — which got further solidified when Makar signed an eight-year, $163 million contract extension last month — Colorado has as good a Cup shot as anyone. But out of its nine straight playoff trips, it has made just one Cup Final (winning the 2022 title) and one other Western Conference final. Oh, and this was also one of the oldest teams in hockey last season.Big question: How many more great seasons can the Avalanche afford to waste?Carolina Hurricanes9.6% Cup | 85.1% playoffsCarolina, maybe the model NHL franchise for stability, could have fewer question marks than the others in this tier, which is good news for its hopes of running things back after winning the Cup a year ago.Under coach Rod Brind’Amour and an exceptionally deep corps of talent led by Sebastian Aho, the Canes finally prevailed through the power of persistence and belief in their possession-heavy system.Now they bring back most of the same group, save for officially moving on from Frederik Andersen at goalie in favor of Cup Final breakout Brandon Bussi and Pyotr Kochetkov. They may even improve by leaning more on young Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake, who stepped their games up in the playoffs.Big question: Does the dam break open from here?Tier 2: Still heavyweightsEdmonton Oilers7.8% Cup | 85.5% playoffsNo longer are the Oilers automatically penciled into the very highest tier of contenders, which is the cost of a season where Edmonton wasn’t quite as sharp — especially on the goal-prevention side — and didn’t have as much depth outside of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard.
This echoes the classic problem of the McDavid era before they started to make deeper playoff runs.But they also made a lot of wholesale changes, from a new coach (Mike Babcock) to a reworked goaltending mix (both Connor Ingram and Stuart Skinner are gone) and a new blue-line mainstay with Darnell Nurse leaving for San Jose.Any team with their top-line talent is dangerous, but the clock is also ticking with McDavid signed for just two more seasons.Big question: Will the goaltending be any better with Frederik Andersen, Tristan Jarry and Devon Levi?Vegas Golden Knights6.8% Cup | 83.2% playoffsThe Golden Knights are one of the toughest teams to fit in any tier because it’s impossible to know exactly what to expect from them this season.During the 2025-26 regular season — almost entirely spent under former coach Bruce Cassidy — Vegas had a middle-of-the-road +0.18 goals per game differential and lost more games (43) than it won (39) … leading to a late-season switch to John Tortorella, which worked wonders as the Knights won 14 of their first 19 playoff games … before dropping three straight to lose in the Cup Final.Now Vegas is hoping that improved health — only Florida lost more cap-hit dollars to injuries — and the leadership of new coach Ryan Craig (previously an assistant with the team) will lead to a more normal contending campaign.Big question: How many times can a team keep reinventing itself — and keep winning?Tier 3: The next waveTampa Bay Lightning5.8% Cup | 75.6% playoffsSpeaking of confusing teams, the Bolts land here after somehow following three consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances (including two wins) with four straight first-round playoff losses.The good news is that Tampa Bay proved its dynasty can resist decline, continuing to thrive in the regular season with a +0.82 goals-per-game differential over the past two seasons (second best behind Colorado’s +0.87). But as great as Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy are, this core isn’t getting any younger — and it lost one of its best producers from 2025-26, Darren Raddysh, in a summer sign-and-trade.Big question: Did Tampa Bay just forget how to make deep postseason runs?Minnesota Wild5.5% Cup | 81.0% playoffsLong stuck in the NHL’s good-but-not-great tier, the Wild are legitimately higher than that now. That happened thanks to a highly talented core of skaters — including Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Brock Faber and, after a midseason trade, Quinn Hughes — plus Jesper Wallstedt in net.They even managed to win their first playoff series since 2015, upsetting their spiritual rival Dallas Stars (i.e., the former Minnesota North Stars).But the following series, a 4-1 defeat to Colo
