A vast area of low pressure in the Atlantic is set to draw warm south to south-easterly winds across the UK early this week, but for some rain will not be far behind. Tuesday looks as if it will be the warmest day and after that temperatures will generally return closer to the September average. Much of the UK can also expect a spell of wetter and windier weather from the approaching depression, with the most unsettled conditions likely to affect Scotland, Northern Ireland and western parts of England and Wales. However, many central, southern and eastern areas of England, which have been affected by drought, may see far less rain.
Last week saw the autumn equinox, so our nights are now longer than our days. This means that despite the warmth in the September sun, we are getting some cooler nights under clear skies. So it will be notably chilly on Monday morning, perhaps with some fog patches to be aware of for the commute. Once the fog clears a brighter day will follow for many, with high pressure allowing sunny spells and just a few scattered showers.
South-east England may see some welcome rain throughout the afternoon and evening, but it is by no means guaranteed. Temperatures will range from the mid to high teens, with some southern areas reaching 20C. On Tuesday a strengthening southerly wind will bring a much warmer day. Temperatures in the high teens are forecast in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and between 20 to 26 C for England and Wales.
However rain will move into Northern Ireland during the afternoon and then trek slowly eastwards throughout the evening and night. It may become persistent and occasionally heavy, with strong winds and gales for exposed coasts and hills. Further east, drier and brighter conditions may remain before the rain arrives on Wednesday – it could possibly linger overnight. Behind the rain it is back to sunny spells and scattered showers, and still windy in the west on Wednesday.
By Thursday, we are expecting high pressure to build, so it should be calmer and drier, and by Friday the north-west becomes the focus for any showers. Of course the caveat is that forecast details may change, so you can stay up-to-date with the short term forecast for your area here. Following the UK’s hottest summer on record, September has been another notably warm month for many. But it has also highlighted a stark north-west to south-east contrast.
While Scotland and other western areas have seen frequent Atlantic weather systems bearing rain and wind, much of central, southern and eastern England has remained largely dry with plenty of sunshine. As a result, rainfall totals have varied dramatically. Some drought-affected parts of England have received very little, while parts of north-west Scotland have been very wet. Some parts – including Kirkwall and Prestwick – have already had nearly one-and-a-half times their average September rainfall.
At Achnagart in the Highlands, rain has been recorded every day for the past 27 days. Parts of Northern Ireland and Wales have had their average rainfall, whilst north-east England has seen some of the lowest amounts so far. At least seven months of relentless rain needed to end drought, research shows
