Japan is now home to more than 100,000 people aged 100 or older, marking a new longevity milestone for a country confronting an accelerating demographic crisis. The number of centenarians reached a record 107,677 this year, according to Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare – an increase of 7,914 from 2025 and the 56th consecutive annual rise. Women account for almost 88 percent of the total. Health Minister Kenichiro Ueno said he was “very pleased that many people are living long, healthy and active lives”, citing advances in medical technology as well as healthy lifestyles and diets.
But behind the celebration lies a profound imbalance. Japan’s elderly population continues to grow while the number of births remains at an all-time low, leaving a shrinking workforce to plug mounting pension, healthcare and social care costs. Here is what we know. Japan has one of the world’s oldest populations, with almost three in every 10 residents now aged 65 or older.
That proportion is projected to approach 40 percent by 2070. Furthermore, more than 800,000 people were aged 95 or above in Japan last year while only 700,000 babies were born, according to government figures. The country’s population is, therefore, also declining increasingly quickly. Preliminary census figures show that the population was lower in 45 of Japan’s 47 prefectures in 2025 than five years earlier, with only Tokyo and Okinawa recording increases.
Japan’s population peaked at about 128 million in 2008, with the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research projecting that it will fall to 87 million by 2070 – a decline of roughly 30 percent. There is no single explanation for this longevity but researchers have pointed to a combination of diet, activity and healthcare. The traditional Japanese diet tends to contain large amounts of fish, vegetables and rice, and comparatively low levels of saturated fat. Obesity rates are also significantly lower than in many Western countries.
Daily routines may play a role as well, with many people out walking, cycling and using public transport, including older people, while group exercise is widely practised. Japan’s universal health insurance system also provides broad access to treatment and medicines at relatively low cost compared with other countries such as the United States. While living longer is an achievement, in Japan, it is also occurring alongside one of the world’s lowest birth rates. The country’s total fertility rate – the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime – fell to a record low of 1.14 in 2025.
A rate of about 2.1 is generally considered necessary to maintain a stable population without requiring immigration to bolster working-age numbers. As a population ages, more people of pension age, who may require higher levels of social care and medical intervention, are being supported by fewer working-age people. Over time, this becomes a major economic problem. Japan has introduced child allowances, subsidised childcare, parental leave programmes and other incentives intended to encourage couples to have children.
None has yet reversed the long-term decline, however. Furthermore, social scientists say, fewer Japanese people are marrying – or they are marrying later when they are less likely to be able to have children – and many younger adults are worried about insecure employment, stagnant wages and demanding working hours, making having a family harder. Women’s increased participation in the workforce has not always been matched by an equal sharing of childcare and household responsibilities, making parenthood particularly difficult to combine with a career for women. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has identified population decline and the falling birthrate as major national challenges, while Japanese officials have repeatedly warned that the trend threatens the country’s economic and social foundations.
A shrinking working-age population means fewer people paying income taxes and social-security contributions, as spending on pensions, healthcare and elderly care rises in tandem. That imbalance places mounting pressure on public finances and on the younger workers supporting the system through taxes. Labour shortages are also affecting industries ranging from construction and agriculture to transport, healthcare and social care. Rural areas face a particularly severe challenge as younger residents move to cities, leaving ageing communities with fewer workers and declining public services.
Immigration can help to offset labour shortages, and Japan’s foreign population has risen in recent years. Foreign nationals, however, still account for only about 3 percent of the population, and proposals to accept substantially more migrants remain politically contentious. Longer life expectancy is one of humanity’s greatest achievements all around the globe, according to the World Health Organization. “Advances in social and economic development as well as in health have lowered mortality rates, particularly among older people,” the WHO said. “Most people can now expect to live into their 60s and beyond.” Global life expectancy reached 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995, according to the WHO. The number of people aged 60 or older is projected to rise from 1.1 billion in 2023 to 1.4 billion by 2030.
But the transition is considerably more advanced in some countries than others. The latest historical estimates in the United Nations’ World Population Prospects put Japan’s median age at 49 in 2023. Among other countries, Italy followed with a median age of 47.5. Portugal’s stood at 46.2, Greece’s at 45.7 and Germany’s at 45.1.
