A weather system containing the remnants of Hurricane Isaias is forecast to send gales, heavy rain and a surge of warm air to parts of the UK this week. The centre of the low, and its most significant impacts, will stay hundreds of miles from UK shores but north-west Scotland will see a spell of gales. A Met Office yellow warning has been issued for parts of the Highlands and Western Isles with the risk of gusts touching 70mph (113km/h) in places. Heavy rain will also affect parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland but much of England and Wales will remain largely dry with spells of sunshine.
The area of low pressure will also send a renewed surge of warm air across the country bringing above-average temperatures for many. Hurricane Isaias was the first Atlantic hurricane of the season and made landfall in the southern United States last Friday. It weakened rapidly and ceased to be a hurricane but its remnants threw heavy rain across the eastern side of North America. Since then, the leftovers have emerged over the Atlantic and been scooped up by a powerful jet stream.
This has developed a new area of low pressure that has been undergoing what meteorologists describe as explosive cyclogenesis, also referred to as a weather bomb. The jet stream is steering the centre of the storm hundreds of miles away from our shores, passing close to Iceland where it will bring the threat of blizzards. Wind gusts over the sea between Iceland and the Faroe Islands could exceed 110mph but nothing this severe is expected in the vicinity of the UK. The far north-west of Scotland will bear the brunt of the winds.
A Met Office yellow weather warning is valid on Wednesday from 10:00 until 19:00 BST, and warns of a high risk of moderate impacts including disruption to rail, air and ferry transport, delays on roads and bridges – especially for high-sided vehicles – and possible short-term power cuts. Widespread gusts of 50-60mph are likely with 70mph possible for exposed coasts and hills around the middle of the day. Outside the warning area, Shetland is also anticipated to see 50mph gusts – although the risk of disruption here is less – and 40mph gusts are possible in other parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England and north-west Wales. After a mainly dry start, outbreaks of rain are expected to arrive in many parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland by the end of the day, with heaviest rain in the north and west.
Some patchy rain may also spread into north-west England and north Wales, but most of both countries will stay fine with sunny spells after any early mist has cleared. The deep area of low pressure is set to send warm south-westerly winds across the UK. Temperatures will widely climb into the mid to high-teens Celsius, possibly peaking at 20C in a few locations in southern England. This will leave most places 2-4C above the mid-October average.
This warmth will linger in many parts of England and Wales on Thursday with temperatures expected to peak at 22C in East Anglia. However, a weather front will move slowly southwards taking rain across Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England and north Wales and behind it things will start to turn cooler. Those chillier – and eventually drier – conditions will then spread southwards across the UK through Friday and over the weekend. Temperatures will fall much closer to the seasonal norm with brisk winds accentuating the colder feel around some eastern coasts and the chance of overnight frost in places.
Computer models suggest that high pressure will then settle close to the UK which should keep Atlantic low pressure systems at bay for the time being, bringing long spells of dry weather for many. You can check your local weather prospects on the BBC Weather website and app. Will El Niño and the polar vortex bring snow to the UK this winter? Super El Niño sets another record as it strengthens to ‘unprecedented levels’ ‘Prepare for the unthinkable’ warning over autumn flooding
