For the first time in more than 30 years, a hurricane has not formed in the Atlantic throughout September – normally the most active month for hurricane activity. The eerily quiet season continues and with just two months left, there is an increasing possibility that no hurricanes will develop at all. This would make the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season the only one in the satellite era without a hurricane. The biggest reason for this is El Niño, which traditionally stifles activity in the Atlantic but brings a very active season in the eastern North Pacific.
The Atlantic hurricane season was predicted to be quieter than normal as a result of this. With a very strong El Niño forecast, the US National Hurricane Center in May predicted a total of eight to 14 named storms. Of those, three to six were predicted to become hurricanes, with one to three becoming major hurricanes. September is typically the most active month for tropical storm and hurricane activity.
But, this year marks the latest date on record since the start of the satellite era (1960s onward) where no hurricane has formed in the North Atlantic. There were, however, four named tropical storms which formed in September: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo and Hanna. All but Edouard stayed out in the open waters of the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center suggests there is no sign of any tropical storm activity or hurricane over the next week at least.
Forecasters at Colorado State University, who also monitor activity, suggest the strong El Niño is likely to disrupt wind patterns across the Atlantic and “likely result in below-normal activity” over the next two-weeks. As the typical peak of the season has passed and is now on a downward trend until 30 November, a season without a single hurricane is looking increasingly possible. In the historical Atlantic hurricane database, there has not been a year without a hurricane recorded since 1914. However, this was pre-satellite monitoring so it is impossible to say with certainty that none formed.
While El Niño is the natural warming of the tropical Pacific, it can disrupt weather patterns around the globe. As wind patterns shift during an El Niño, upper winds over the Atlantic increase and this leads to more wind shear, where wind changes rapidly with height. Increased wind shear rips apart thunderstorms, preventing them from growing into tropical storms or hurricanes. Meanwhile, the Pacific typically becomes more active during El Niño because the sea surface temperatures here are much higher, combined with more favourable wind patterns.
The warmer waters give storms more energy to grow into tropical storms and hurricanes. This year, temperature records have already been broken in a key region of the central-eastern Pacific, with daily sea surface temperatures now exceeding the previous record set during the very strong El Niño of 2015. There have so far been 17 named storms in the basin including nine hurricanes, seven of which were major. In terms of the amount of energy these storms have produced – known as the Accumulated Cyclone Energy – this season is around two and half times more active than normal at this point.
El Niño is predicted to continue to strengthen with forecasts suggesting it will reach its peak in November or December. New hurricane season record as ‘historic’ El Niño leaves Atlantic eerily quiet Developing El Niño becomes strongest on record weeks before expected peak How a developing El Niño will impact the Atlantic hurricane season
