The right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro has won the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, beating the incumbent left-wing President Lula da Silva. But he did not obtain more than 50% of the votes required to win outright. There will be a run-off vote between these two candidates on 25 October. Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of the former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for masterminding a failed coup attempt after losing the last election.
The polls had suggested this race to be extremely close, with President Lula typically polling slightly ahead. With 98.81% of the votes counted, Bolsonaro had 47.24% to Lula’s 44.91% of the vote. Bolsonaro’s result exceeded expectations, meaning the second round now looks like his to lose, not least because some of the other presidential candidates who were knocked out in the first round were right-wing alternatives. The majority of Latin America has now elected right-wing presidents, aligned to the Trump administration, and the run-off will determine whether Brazil – Latin America’s largest country and economy – will follow suit or not.
After casting his ballot, Lula, 80, warned that the choice was between democracy and “barbarism”. Bolsonaro, 45, said he wanted to “free the Brazilian people”. Lula and Bolsonaro are the two biggest names in Brazilian politics, on the left and right, and this campaign has polarised Brazil yet again: with themes of sovereignty, crime, the economy and corruption being top concerns for voters. President Lula is seeking a fourth term in office, after being elected in 2002, 2006 and then a later non-consecutive term in 2022.
In that election, he beat Jair Bolsonaro by less than 2% of the vote, the closest presidential election result in Brazil’s history. After that election, Bolsonaro’s supporters vandalised government buildings on 8 January 2023. Jair Bolsonaro was banned from running for re-election even before his prison sentence, but endorsed his eldest son Flávio to run in his place. Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle, was elected to the Senate on Sunday.
Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to grant his father, and his supporters responsible for the January 8th riots, amnesty if elected. The president of Brazil’s supreme electoral court said on Sunday that no evidence of international interference was found in the election. During the campaign, President Lula made “sovereignty” a key pillar of his campaign and at times accused the United States of trying to interfere in and influence Brazil’s elections. He has pledged to increase defence spending.
Earlier this year, Flávio Bolsonaro successfully lobbied the United States to designate the two biggest Brazilian gangs as terrorist organisations. In July, Brazil refused visas for two US State Department officials who Brazil alleged were attempting to sow doubt in Brazil’s electoral system, which the US called “baseless.” It came after Flávio Bolsonaro reportedly told a group of foreign diplomats that Brazil’s voting machines share the same origin as Venezuela’s, which is false. Last year, Donald Trump used the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro as justification for imposing tariffs on Brazil and sanctioning some top officials and judges. A win for Flávio Bolsonaro would likely see Brazil join the US’s “Shield of Americas” coalition against narco-trafficking and align more closely with the US.
He has though pledged to maintain an “economically pragmatic” relationship with China, which has overtaken the US as Brazil’s biggest trading partner and is a crucial customer for Brazil’s soy and beef exports. Corruption became a key issue in this campaign after a scandal involving a jailed banker, Daniel Vorcaro, who orchestrated one of Brazil’s largest financial frauds, embroiled senior figures across the political spectrum. Flávio Bolsonaro acknowledged that he’d asked Vorcaro to bankroll a biopic about his father after voice recordings emerged in which he could be heard asking for 134 million reais ($25.9m; £19.5m). Lula was also impacted by the scandal indirectly, after police suggested Vorcaro had reached out to the Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes to ask for help avoiding arrest.
Moraes denies any wrongdoing. Moraes was not appointed by Lula but is seen as his ally, given Moraes presided over Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial. Crime and insecurity were also top concerns for voters. Brazil’s homicide rate has fallen, but street crime such as phone thefts, that are highly visible to voters, have increased – and violence and drug trafficking are still major problems.
Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to designate Brazilian gangs as terrorists and build maximum-security prisons akin to those in El Salvador. His father, during his presidency, loosened gun ownership restrictions. Lula has criticised the US terrorist designation of Brazilian gangs but has launched various reforms to tackle the financial networks of organised crime networks, improve homicide investigations, and invest in prisons. The economy has been central to this campaign too: the country has high levels of personal debt and slowing growth.
Lula has defined his legacy through a series of social welfare programmes, mostly notably Bolsa Família, that pays families to ensure children stay in education and receive healthcare such as vaccines, as well as building more universities. The programmes have been credited with lifting millions of Brazilians out of poverty. He has backed more investment in data centres and rare earth minerals, which Brazil is rich in, with strong state involvement to ensure that Brazil benefits. He has also backed oil drilling exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River, which has proved controversial with environmentalists, but he has a record of tightening environmental protections and reducing the rate of deforestation in the Amazon.
Deforestation increased significantly under Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency. Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged a public debt ceiling and government spending cuts, a revision of social welfare, and to bolster the critical minerals sector. What to know about Brazil’s election as Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro face off Why has Brazil accused the US of election interference? Brazil’s Lula bans online gambling ahead of presidential election
