Kimi Antonelli’s chief rivals may have all but ruled themselves out of winning the title but the season’s first triple header could provide unpredictable twists; watch every session of the Azerbaijan GP from Thursday live on Sky Sports F1, with the race on Saturday at 12pm Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player Formula 1 embarks on its first triple header of the season this week with the Azerbaijan Grand Prix the first of three races in as many weekends. The race on the streets of Baku – which takes place on Saturday rather than the usual Sunday – was originally due to be a standalone event with the Singapore Grand Prix following on two weeks later. But the moving of the Bahrain Grand Prix to Malaysia in the week between the two events has created the run of three successive race weeks, with two more triple headers scheduled to close out the 2026 season. So what can we expect from this first Azerbaijan-Malaysia-Singapore triple and what will the world championship picture – which currently sees Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli holding a commanding lead – look like on the other side into mid-October?
While Antonelli’s victory last time out in Madrid was fortuitous thanks to the Virtual Safety Car timing that helped him and hindered McLaren’s race-leading Lando Norris, the Mercedes driver was enjoying another strong weekend at F1’s brand-new venue and was in position to capitalise on such a slice of luck. That victory, Antonelli’s eighth in 14 races this season, means he arrives in Baku with an 81-point lead at the top of the Drivers’ Championship. Since seeing his title advantage over team-mate George Russell cut to just 25 points at the British Grand Prix at the start of July, Antonelli’s lead has increased in each of the last five race weekends to its current season-high total. Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player Russell remains Antonelli’s closest challenger but he all but conceded his hopes of beating his team-mate to the crown after falling more than the equivalent of three races wins behind the Italian by finishing fifth at the Madring.
Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton had already effectively ruled himself out after the previous weekend’s race at Monza, but was more certain in saying his title hopes were over after brake problems at the Madring saw him register his first DNF of the season. Hamilton is now 101 points off the pace while fourth-placed Norris, the grid’s in-form driver alongside Antonelli, saw his own deficit grow to 106 points on a weekend the reigning world champion was unlucky not to make it three wins in four. Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player All the championship cards appear firmly stacked in Antonelli’s favour, not that the young Italian appears to carry the weight of being the clear title favourite particularly heavily. The 20-year-old has continued to insist he is “not thinking about the championship” in every interview he is asked about it, a mantra that his team boss Toto Wolff says is genuine and the best one for his driver to adopt.
Yet time is obviously running out for any one of the would-be challengers to put a stunning run of form and results together over the final rounds to truly trouble him. There is still time, though, and with 83 points up for grabs during this first triple header of rounds alone – 75 across the three grands prix and eight for the Singapore Sprint – Mercedes are right to remain cautious – for now. Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player But should Antonelli finish the Singapore weekend on October 11 with a similar or even increased lead compared to the 81-point one he holds now, then the odds on him not becoming the sport’s youngest-ever world champion will become very long indeed, even with a maximum of six rounds (and 150 points) left to play for. Kicking off this intense run into the autumn is the Baku City Circuit, a high-speed, wall-lined street track through the middle of Azerbaijan’s capital that has often featured on lists of a season’s most dramatic races during its first decade on the calendar.
Last year’s race – and indeed weekend – certainly fell into that category after a qualifying session that featured a record six red flags and a race, won by Red Bull’s Max Verstappen, which saw then-title favourite and points leader Oscar Piastri crash out within six corners. The McLaren driver had also hit the wall in qualifying. Antonelli, who finished fourth on his F1 debut in Baku last season and took a podium in F2 the year before, will be hoping to avoid those pitfalls as this year’s driver to catch on a circuit which Mercedes, like at Monza, are being tipped to be particularly strong. Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player “Baku is completely different [to Madrid].
Slow-speed corners, massive straights, a little bit lower downforce as a result for those long straights,” Sky Sports F1’s Nico Rosberg told The F1 Show podcast. “Engine power is always going to favour Mercedes in that way. We saw it in Monza, so I think Mercedes has to be the big favourite. “Max Verstappen was fast in Monza, so maybe Verstappen can be the surprise there.” Then, for the first time in nine years, it is on to Malaysia and a Sepang International Circuit that was always a favourite among drivers and fans during its original 1999-2017 run on the calendar.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player Ten current drivers were on the grid when F1 last raced there (with Charles Leclerc driving for Sauber in 2017’s Friday practice), while Alex Albon and Liam Lawson drove there in junior series. Antonelli, Russell and Norris are among those whose only experiences of the sweeping layout will have come in the simulation world, although even F1’s most sophisticated tools cannot reflect the level of heat and humidity that famously accompanies racing in tropical Sepang. But oppressive conditions are what drivers are regularly used to anyway in neighbouring Singapore at the Marina Bay Street Circuit, which has certainly been the most physically demanding race of the season in recent times. Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player What will be new in Singapore this year, though, is that its schedule features the Sprint format for the first time.
It will be the sixth and final Sprint weekend of the season. Sprint weekends by their nature – with a single practice session before the competitive sessions begin – increase the chance of unpredictability and punish any early driver mistakes or missteps on car set-up. Marina Bay, with its omnipresent walls, will only heighten that challenge. As has been the case throughout this first season of the sport’s new-look cars, the upgrade packages the leading teams bring to each race weekend will continue to have an impact on the pecking order.
Much-improved McLaren will have another package of changes on their MCL40 for Baku, a track where they struggled last year irrespective of Piastri’s travails. Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player Mercedes’ long-awaited upgrade will arrive for the following race in Malaysia. The W17 has not been upgraded to any significant degree at a single race since the Canadian Grand Prix at the end of May, an approach which has certainly helped Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull to catch up. However, the big question – and, for their rivals, the potential worry – is how much the Silver Arrows’ Sepang package pushes them on.
“I think we are bringing a solid upgrade in Malaysia,” Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff told Sky Sports F1 in Madrid. “So we’ve got to survive another race in Baku. Let’s see. “Sometimes it doesn’t correlate with the road so well, so I hope that it does and hopefully that puts us on par with the others in terms of upgrades, but you never know.” Mercedes also have an ADUO power-unit upgrade still to deploy this season should they wish, amid suggestions the Silver Arrows could deploy it to coincide with whatever race Russell takes his expected engine grid penalty at.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player Ferrari – who continue to show flashes of impressive promise but too regularly trip themselves up – and Red Bull – who appear to be getting closer to a first win of the year with Verstappen – will likely have new parts too across the triple header before attention throughout the field fully switches towards the 2027 challengers. Will Antonelli remain in realistic chasing distance for 2026’s final races by then? Racing on a Saturday! The 2026 Formula 1 season continues live on Sky Sports F1 this week as the Azerbaijan Grand Prix kicks off a triple-header of races, with the Baku race taking place on Saturday at midday.
