Wander through Parliament at the moment, and there is one issue many MPs want to discuss: is there going to be an early general election? Prime Minister Andy Burnham has nearly three years to go before he has to call an election and he has repeatedly and categorically ruled out going to the country early. But the discussion persists – and many think it is a real possibility. After Wednesday’s Budget, that talk has only increased.
As one former Labour minister puts it: “Why would you sprinkle round a few politically smart (albeit small) giveaways now but delay all the really tough and unpopular decisions on welfare and defence to an autumn spending review if you weren’t creating a window for a spring election?” Others have also suggested to the BBC that Chancellor John Healey’s plans felt like a pre-election programme. They argue the Budget contained voter-friendly measures on the cost of living, such as £100 help for many with energy bills and extending VAT cuts on electricity bills. Young voters are to be offered help on to the housing ladder, through the Your First Home scheme. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has questioned why some-voter friendly measures announced by Healey will only be in place until the summer.
Could it be, she suggests, that the prime minister plans to go to the country before these measures run out? (The counter-argument to this is that household energy pressures are less severe in the summer.) Some MPs also point out the prime minister is popular at the moment and Labour is leading in most polls. Reform, who had led the polls for some time, have had a difficult few months. Will things ever look better for Burnham, they ask. Then there are the difficult spending decisions faced by the chancellor.
How to find the money to fund an increase in defence spending? How to bring down the welfare bill? How to cut departmental spending to make the books add up? “He is delaying all of the bad stuff until after a poll,” reckons one Conservative MP.
The Liberal Democrats have claimed there is a 30% chance of a general election on 10 December. The party has been put on a “snap election footing”. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has said he thinks there could be a general election in May. It is worth pointing out predictions of an early election are coming more from opposition MPs, some of whom might be keen to cause a bit of trouble.
An election has to be held by August 2029, but some Labour MPs have said they are so convinced an early election is on the way that they have told their staff to prepare for one in the first half of next year. Healey unveils £100 for energy bills and bank tax in first Budget Burnham rules out early general election in next 12 months Analysis: Healey provides some breathing space but things still set to get worse for most There are, though, plenty of arguments against a general election in the next year. Firstly, the prime minister has repeatedly ruled it out in interviews. On Wednesday, he said explicitly that there would not be an election in the next 12 months.
Politicians can change their minds, but one veteran Tory concludes a change of heart, after emphatic denials, would be too damaging to “Brand Burnham”. Next – despite the chancellor’s giveaways on the cost of living – the overall economic outlook is “pretty grim”, in the words of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Real Household Disposable Income looks set to fall in the coming months. Interest rates are predicted to go up.
Nobody knows for sure what will happen next in the Middle East – and whether things could get worse before they get better. Burnham has pledged a rewiring of the British state. He plans to set out a 10-year plan in the coming weeks. But without more detail, some wonder if voters will know enough to make a judgement.
On more than one occasion, Burnham has vowed to bring about the most significant change in British politics in four decades. One former Labour minister could not detect much in this week’s Budget to that effect, saying: “It’s not an end to 40 years of neoliberalism is it?” That message was echoed by another Labour MP: “It was too low key to be an election Budget.” “It was a disappointment, a play it safe, keep everything ticking over Budget… crumbs for all,” said another. “No early general election after that Budget. We would be toast.” Some argue Burnham would benefit from having his own mandate, with his own manifesto.
But given the size of Labour’s general election win last time, many MPs think it’s inevitable that Labour will lose ground. Others say that if Burnham’s government does feel the need to break Sir Keir Starmer’s manifesto commitments by increasing taxes, they should just do it, instead of holding an election. “If we need an election to put up taxes then arguably that’s easier to do now with our massive majority than to start an election campaign on the basis that we’re calling it in order to put up taxes,” said one Labour MP. “People act like a manifesto is a legal document written in blood.
Plenty of governments have broken lots of manifesto promises.” Remember too that the prime minister has promised a detailed plan on social care in England, which is some way off. He has also not decided how far he wants to go in taking the UK closer to the EU. There is a lot for Number 10 to weigh up. Labour might look back to Gordon Brown, who did not call an early election when he was prime minister and doing well in the polls.
If he had gone to the country in October 2007, might Labour have stayed in power? But there will be plenty of others who look to Theresa May. She opted for a snap general election in April 2017, after mulling the decision over on a walking holiday in Wales. Despite flying high in the polls, the Tories lost their majority.
So will Burnham do it? He might be tempted. But there are plenty of risks that mean it would be far from an easy choice.
