The UK will grow by less than expected next year amid the ongoing US-Israel war in Iran, an international agency has said. It is one of many countries whose economic prospects are facing a hit due to the prolonged conflict, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said. The downgrade to the UK’s economic growth outlook is moderate, according to the OECD, which predicted it will grow by 1% in 2027, against an earlier forecast of 1.1%. The agency also upgraded the UK’s growth outlook for 2026, from an expected 0.9% to 1.1% for the year.
The prediction comes as Chancellor John Healey prepares to deliver his first Budget at the end of October. In the short-term, UK growth in 2026 is expected to be higher than the OECD predicted in June after “solid domestic demand growth”. But it will be lower than predicted in 2027 as higher fuel prices eat into growth. The effects of this depend on how long supply disruptions last, it said.
Risks to the global economy include the war in the middle east and climate-change related supply shocks, the OECD said. Next year, global growth is expected to also be 0.1% lower, with countries affected including Australia, Canada, and the Euro-area. Conflict in the Middle East has contributed to higher oil and gas prices globally, pushing up inflation in countries including the UK. Weather-related shocks, including from a strong El Nino, could hit farmers and help push up food prices, it added.
